Flashreport 03-26

Dentsu forecasts global advertising to grow by at least 3% in 2026, surpassing the USD 1 trillion mark for the first time. The year will be buoyed by major events such as the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid‑term elections. Digital channels will capture a striking 68.7% of global spend. The outlook aligns with findings from Dentsu’s CMO Navigator study, in which 86% of CMOs expect to increase their budgets in 2026 and view media as a strategic lever for growth. Germany is also reaching new thresholds. According to ZAW’s December estimate, the market will total EUR 50.66 billion in 2025 — a 1.8% rise year on year. The 50 billion figure includes EUR 27.5 billion (+3.2%) in net advertising revenues from – the standard figure used to measure growth – and adds EUR 11.6 billion (+2.9%) from fees, advertising production and media costs, and EUR 11.5 billion (‑1.8%) from other forms of commercial communication such as sponsorships, catalogues and promotional items. For 2026, the most optimistic view comes from the German Media Agencies Association, projecting a 3.5% increase versus 2025. Dentsu expects Germany to grow by 2.7%. Their forecast also suggests the UK will expand at twice that pace, while Italy and France will grow faster than Germany; only Spain is expected to lag. At EU level, growth is projected between 3.8% and 4.5% over the coming years. The most cautious outlook for Germany comes from JOM, which anticipates a flat market (+0.5%) in 2026 amid ongoing economic uncertainty. WINNERS AND LOOSERS All forecasters point to the same development: a few players are absorbing an ever‑larger share of spend. Google, Meta and Amazon will account for 51.6% of net advertising investments in Germany — EUR 16.3 billion — up from less than 50% a year earlier. Google (EUR 8.2 bn) is set to hold the largest share of the German net advertising market in 2026, with total growth of +4.7% and a 10% lift for YouTube. Meta (EUR 5.16 bn) is expected to grow by +9.1%, while Amazon (EUR 3.0 bn) is projected to rise by +10% overall and +15% for Prime Video. TikTok (EUR 0.6 bn), though smaller, continues its steep trajectory with expected growth of +30% versus 2025. Traditional media — notably linear TV and print — are projected to be among the year’s losers. Linear TV (EUR 3.1 bn) is set to shrink by ‑6%. Print will see the steepest declines: ‑9% for newspapers (EUR 1.3 bn) and ‑10% for consumer magazines (EUR 0.4 bn). Cinema advertising (EUR 0.6 bn) is also expected to dip by ‑2%. By contrast, online display (EUR 3.6 bn, excluding Google, Amazon and Meta) will grow by +3%. OOH (EUR 1.0 bn) will rise by +3% and digital OOH (EUR 0.7 bn) by +10%. Retail media (EUR 0.8 bn excluding Amazon) will expand by +20%. Linear radio (EUR 0.7 bn) will see a modest +1%. Streaming services (EUR 0.6 bn, excluding YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and Prime Video) are forecast to grow by +10%, partly offsetting losses in linear TV. Audio streaming (EUR 0.1 bn) will also gain +10%. Podcasts (EUR 52 million) will grow by +3%. From JOM’s perspective, traditional media outlets and media agencies still have an opportunity to reclaim budgets from digital platforms. The key challenge for the coming year, according to Volker Neumann, Managing Director of the JOM Group, will be proving the effectiveness of these channels.

Dentsu forecasts global advertising to grow by at least 3% in 2026, surpassing the USD 1 trillion mark for the first time. The year will be buoyed by major events such as the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid‑term elections. Digital channels will capture a striking 68.7% of global spend. The outlook aligns with findings from Dentsu’s CMO Navigator study, in which 86% of CMOs expect to increase their budgets in 2026 and view media as a strategic lever for growth. Germany is also reaching new thresholds. According to ZAW’s December estimate, the market will total EUR 50.66 billion in 2025 — a 1.8% rise year on year. The 50 billion figure includes EUR 27.5 billion (+3.2%) in net advertising revenues from – the standard figure used to measure growth – and adds EUR 11.6 billion (+2.9%) from fees, advertising production and media costs, and EUR 11.5 billion (‑1.8%) from other forms of commercial communication such as sponsorships, catalogues and promotional items. For 2026, the most optimistic view comes from the German Media Agencies Association, projecting a 3.5% increase versus 2025. Dentsu expects Germany to grow by 2.7%. Their forecast also suggests the UK will expand at twice that pace, while Italy and France will grow faster than Germany; only Spain is expected to lag. At EU level, growth is projected between 3.8% and 4.5% over the coming years. The most cautious outlook for Germany comes from JOM, which anticipates a flat market (+0.5%) in 2026 amid ongoing economic uncertainty. WINNERS AND LOOSERS All forecasters point to the same development: a few players are absorbing an ever‑larger share of spend. Google, Meta and Amazon will account for 51.6% of net advertising investments in Germany — EUR 16.3 billion — up from less than 50% a year earlier. Google (EUR 8.2 bn) is set to hold the largest share of the German net advertising market in 2026, with total growth of +4.7% and a 10% lift for YouTube. Meta (EUR 5.16 bn) is expected to grow by +9.1%, while Amazon (EUR 3.0 bn) is projected to rise by +10% overall and +15% for Prime Video. TikTok (EUR 0.6 bn), though smaller, continues its steep trajectory with expected growth of +30% versus 2025. Traditional media — notably linear TV and print — are projected to be among the year’s losers. Linear TV (EUR 3.1 bn) is set to shrink by ‑6%. Print will see the steepest declines: ‑9% for newspapers (EUR 1.3 bn) and ‑10% for consumer magazines (EUR 0.4 bn). Cinema advertising (EUR 0.6 bn) is also expected to dip by ‑2%. By contrast, online display (EUR 3.6 bn, excluding Google, Amazon and Meta) will grow by +3%. OOH (EUR 1.0 bn) will rise by +3% and digital OOH (EUR 0.7 bn) by +10%. Retail media (EUR 0.8 bn excluding Amazon) will expand by +20%. Linear radio (EUR 0.7 bn) will see a modest +1%. Streaming services (EUR 0.6 bn, excluding YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and Prime Video) are forecast to grow by +10%, partly offsetting losses in linear TV. Audio streaming (EUR 0.1 bn) will also gain +10%. Podcasts (EUR 52 million) will grow by +3%. From JOM’s perspective, traditional media outlets and media agencies still have an opportunity to reclaim budgets from digital platforms. The key challenge for the coming year, according to Volker Neumann, Managing Director of the JOM Group, will be proving the effectiveness of these channels.

Dentsu forecasts global advertising to grow by at least 3% in 2026, surpassing the USD 1 trillion mark for the first time. The year will be buoyed by major events such as the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid‑term elections. Digital channels will capture a striking 68.7% of global spend. The outlook aligns with findings from Dentsu’s CMO Navigator study, in which 86% of CMOs expect to increase their budgets in 2026 and view media as a strategic lever for growth. Germany is also reaching new thresholds. According to ZAW’s December estimate, the market will total EUR 50.66 billion in 2025 — a 1.8% rise year on year. The 50 billion figure includes EUR 27.5 billion (+3.2%) in net advertising revenues from – the standard figure used to measure growth – and adds EUR 11.6 billion (+2.9%) from fees, advertising production and media costs, and EUR 11.5 billion (‑1.8%) from other forms of commercial communication such as sponsorships, catalogues and promotional items. For 2026, the most optimistic view comes from the German Media Agencies Association, projecting a 3.5% increase versus 2025. Dentsu expects Germany to grow by 2.7%. Their forecast also suggests the UK will expand at twice that pace, while Italy and France will grow faster than Germany; only Spain is expected to lag. At EU level, growth is projected between 3.8% and 4.5% over the coming years. The most cautious outlook for Germany comes from JOM, which anticipates a flat market (+0.5%) in 2026 amid ongoing economic uncertainty. WINNERS AND LOOSERS All forecasters point to the same development: a few players are absorbing an ever‑larger share of spend. Google, Meta and Amazon will account for 51.6% of net advertising investments in Germany — EUR 16.3 billion — up from less than 50% a year earlier. Google (EUR 8.2 bn) is set to hold the largest share of the German net advertising market in 2026, with total growth of +4.7% and a 10% lift for YouTube. Meta (EUR 5.16 bn) is expected to grow by +9.1%, while Amazon (EUR 3.0 bn) is projected to rise by +10% overall and +15% for Prime Video. TikTok (EUR 0.6 bn), though smaller, continues its steep trajectory with expected growth of +30% versus 2025. Traditional media — notably linear TV and print — are projected to be among the year’s losers. Linear TV (EUR 3.1 bn) is set to shrink by ‑6%. Print will see the steepest declines: ‑9% for newspapers (EUR 1.3 bn) and ‑10% for consumer magazines (EUR 0.4 bn). Cinema advertising (EUR 0.6 bn) is also expected to dip by ‑2%. By contrast, online display (EUR 3.6 bn, excluding Google, Amazon and Meta) will grow by +3%. OOH (EUR 1.0 bn) will rise by +3% and digital OOH (EUR 0.7 bn) by +10%. Retail media (EUR 0.8 bn excluding Amazon) will expand by +20%. Linear radio (EUR 0.7 bn) will see a modest +1%. Streaming services (EUR 0.6 bn, excluding YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and Prime Video) are forecast to grow by +10%, partly offsetting losses in linear TV. Audio streaming (EUR 0.1 bn) will also gain +10%. Podcasts (EUR 52 million) will grow by +3%. From JOM’s perspective, traditional media outlets and media agencies still have an opportunity to reclaim budgets from digital platforms. The key challenge for the coming year, according to Volker Neumann, Managing Director of the JOM Group, will be proving the effectiveness of these channels.

In a year defined by smaller budgets and fewer submissions, INNOCEAN stood out with a steady rise into the top five across all three major German rankings, even reaching the podium in one of them. In the excellence rankings—those that focus on the highest awards and the most respected competitions—INNOCEAN performed even better, underscoring the distinct quality of its work and its ability to compete with agencies operating on larger budgets. #3 AT CAMPAIGN CREATIVE RANKING INNOCEAN’s strongest showing came in the Campaign Creative Ranking, where it reached the podium at #3, following Serviceplan and Scholz & Friends—a result driven by a clear focus on international shows. The agency climbed four spots from its #7 position in 2024. The ranking, introduced in 2024, evaluates 16 award shows and included 1,000 awards this year—25% fewer than in 2024—reflecting how agencies are scaling back award spending in a tighter market. #5 AT W&V CREATIVE RANKING W&V describes INNOCEAN as “a rising star,” noting its steady ascent into the top five from #7 last year and #9 in 2023. The close ratio between campaigns entered and awards won is praised as “top‑notch efficiency.” In the publication’s Excellence Ranking—which counts only Gold and Grand Prix—INNOCEAN placed #2, trailing only Serviceplan. W&V also points to budget cuts and broad caution across the industry in a difficult economic climate. This year’s ranking recorded 1,100 awards, 300 fewer (‑21%) than in 2024, across 22 competitions. #5 AT HORIZONT CREATIVE RANKING For the first time, INNOCEAN also entered the top five of Horizont’s creative ranking—an achievement the publication summarized as “INNOCEAN Berlin continues its steady climb.” In the adjacent Triple‑A ranking, which covers Cannes, ADC and Effie, INNOCEAN placed #4, behind Serviceplan (firmly in the top spot for four years), Scholz & Friends and Publicis. The agency had ranked 8th and 10th in 2024 and 2023. Other recent results where INNOCEAN reached leading positions include ADC, where it ranked #4, and FICE, where INNOCEAN Berlin was named Germany’s Agency of the Year. INNOCEAN European CCO Gabriel Mattar reflected on the agency’s rise among Germany’s established names and why he continues to champion global competitions: “We want to create work that we know is great and then subject it to the highest standards by testing it on the global stage—at the shows we trust—against the best agencies in the world. That’s how we stay motivated. That’s how we learn where we stand. And ultimately, that’s how we ensure our ideas have global impact and not just local.”